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Darth Tickles
Northstar Cabal
Fatal Ascension
28
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Posted - 2012.02.23 15:18:00 -
[1] - Quote
Obviously the only real explanation is "duping".
Technetium is a "bottleneck". When general demand rises, the "bottleneck" gets squeezed and prices rise. Significant price shift trends create volatility in those prices as they shift to a new equilibrium. Price volatility leads to temporary imbalances in inputs and outputs, which are then corrected by the market.
That or "duping". |
Darth Tickles
Northstar Cabal
Fatal Ascension
38
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Posted - 2012.03.06 21:04:00 -
[2] - Quote
It was wiped out to scraps at 150k pu two weeks ago.
Definitely a strong upward trend with all this activity (general demand for ships and mods). |
Darth Tickles
Northstar Cabal
Fatal Ascension
101
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Posted - 2012.03.21 13:05:00 -
[3] - Quote
So I'm going to take the fact that nobody posts about technetium anymore as a sign that few people are speculating in the tech market anymore... |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
131
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Posted - 2012.03.27 18:23:00 -
[4] - Quote
I don't see why there will be "panic and crashing".
People will still want T2 stuff right up until the minute that the new sourced materials start hitting the market. Far more likely is a slow decline as you get within a month of the change, then a slightly steeper decline as the new material actually starts hitting the market down to whatever target area ccp is aiming for, if they dont f it up.
It will all be very anti-climactic. |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
131
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Posted - 2012.03.27 19:44:00 -
[5] - Quote
Countesss wrote:Same reason most prices inflate or deflate drastically...the speculators either hoarding or dumping their stocks. Soon as the change is official, I can guarantee the price bursts. Surely some interesting days ahead for tech.
You're assuming people have speculative stockpiles. The price has risen 50% and nothing has come to market besides what would be coming out of moons. Even if there were, you're suggesting that people who are holding through the fastest rise in a year, will suddenly panic sell as a mechanic change they know is coming gets introduced?
You basically made an off-the-cuff remark without putting any thought into it or having any knowledge of the subject, and now you look a little silly. |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
131
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Posted - 2012.03.27 22:16:00 -
[6] - Quote
Herman Klaus wrote:Holding a mountain of Tech you bought at 135k i bet!
That's because you're an idiot.
**** it actually, let's bet. Name the bet, loser pays 3rd party costs.
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Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
131
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Posted - 2012.03.27 23:07:00 -
[7] - Quote
You said that "you bet", so let's bet. Put a few billion down on your bet, if you're so sure.
Or were you just making a useless throwaway comment? |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
131
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Posted - 2012.03.27 23:37:00 -
[8] - Quote
lol
a "trolld" and a "umad?" in a row. two people post without thinking, two people get called on it, two people revert to cheap logical fallacies instead of just admitting they posted without thinking
maybe you'll both think before you post next time
probably not though |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
247
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Posted - 2012.04.25 12:47:00 -
[9] - Quote
CCP attempted to fix dyspro and are intending to fix tech because it makes for ****** gameplay IN NULLSEC; it has nothing to do with the overall price of goods or some amorphous "breaking the economy" concern.
As to the "cartel", demand is basically fixed up to an unknown price point, after which it will decline slowly with price as certain ships become replaceable with t1 or t3 variants. I am supremely confident that we haven't yet reached that point. What the cartel does is allow them to search out the general area of that point by collectively testing new price points instead of flooding the market every time the market starts pushing to a new price point. Instead of having to clear the market three times for every 10k pu jump, you can just jump it 10s of ks at a time, somewhat confident that the other suppliers will coordinate with you to wait and see if the new price point sticks.
The result is just a faster rise to an inevitable equilibrium, skipping dozens of lengthy and tedious ups and downs that an undirected market-driven process would take. It is, in essence, speculation at its finest. Also, as someone who has recently ridden the mu8ltiple ups and downs to make 20% on every 10% rise: **** you, assholes. |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
264
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Posted - 2012.05.02 04:00:00 -
[10] - Quote
Looks like the bottom is ready to fall out of tech and derivatives.
Suppliers ramping the price up is based on a game of chicken between themselves and the buyers to see who will give in first. While sellers as a cartel have an advantage of being able to coordinate, I think the Jita weekend may have played the buyers' hand for them, and people just decided to skip buying high priced tech and derivatives from an occupied Jita. Where they may have individually accepted the new price range set and raced to be the first to cash in on rising t2 prices, they instead collectively faced the same disincentives of high prices and gank risk.
I'd like to see it fall just because it would create a new decision dynamic in the cartel, where now you have to consider internal and external reputation of the cartel in terms of effectiveness. It will be interesting either way though. |
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Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
264
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Posted - 2012.05.02 04:55:00 -
[11] - Quote
Except the entire market wasn't in a similar stare-down over purposefully and publicly ramped-up prices.
I'll reread it in the morning, but it seems pretty clear and simple to me, whether you agree or not aside. |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
267
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Posted - 2012.05.02 11:18:00 -
[12] - Quote
Yup, I'm far from doomcalling here. I just wanted to point out that in what is largely a psychological game internally and externally, the burn jita event may have made it significantly easier for buyers not to accept a new higher price range and similarly harder for cartel members to not begin to doubt, distrust or outright cheat.
I know eve-o gets a lot of knee-jerk anti-goon comments, but this is far from that. I'm just hopeful because a tougher ride for price control efforts just makes for a more interesting subject and volatile price. |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
267
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Posted - 2012.05.03 03:07:00 -
[13] - Quote
One question
When? |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
313
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Posted - 2012.05.07 16:42:00 -
[14] - Quote
Idk exactly when the market will stop clearing, but I am supremely confident that every unit produced will still be consumed at 200k pu, and all we`re seeing is fluctuations associated with the big change engineered by the cartel.
That said, for the first time in a long time I do not have a good `feel`for what`s going on in the market, and am currently waiting to see how things play out before I make another market move, if I make another market move. I see a lot of downward pressure on nanos and tech itself, but sellers of raw tech are showing surprising discipline in not chasing the price of raw tech back down.
It will be an interesting week or two watching how it all plays out. |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
343
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Posted - 2012.05.08 22:48:00 -
[15] - Quote
Generally lower tech volume can just mean more being reacted directly by primary producers, which is more plausible the longer the moons are held by the same alliance like we have had for a long time.
I don't put much stock in the daily volume of tech. The daily volume of nanos and fullerieds, on the other had, are still as relevant as they always were.
Again, I'm not saying I know either way right now, I just don;t think that's a valid way to analyze the situation. |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
351
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Posted - 2012.05.09 12:45:00 -
[16] - Quote
Nomad I wrote:It doesn't matter where the tech is processed. In the end it's the total market value that gives you the profit. And when nanotransistors don't give an noticeable additional profit because of the tower and transport cost, moon goo owners will not do it.
nonresponsive
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